The current picture. SOL is holding in a medium-term uptrend: the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day (golden cross), the RSI is more often in the range of 50-60, indicating a “healthy” uptrend without pronounced overbought conditions. The local range is $196-215, where the upper limit ($212-215) acts as an impulse trigger.
All this points to a “healthy” uptrend without overheating.
Fundamental drivers
The demand is supported by the active cases of the network: the highly loaded DeFi/DEX segment, fast payments, gaming and DePIN projects. For the price, this means increased elasticity in the event of a breakdown of resistances: the influx of transactions and TVL often coincides with an expansion of the range.
Opinions of traders. Michael van de Poppe often notes the importance of “rebooting” after momentum and gaining a foothold above a key resistance zone to launch a new wave. Rekt Capital pays attention to weekly closures: they confirm the range change. Peter Brandt’s approach to price patterns (channels, wedges) is also useful here: exiting a narrowing range usually gives a move comparable to the width of the formation.
Technical levels.- Resistances: $212-215, then $225, $240-250, above — $260-280.
- Supports: $205-200, then $195-196, deeper — $180-176.
Indicators. The 4H EMA band often serves as dynamic support; volumes at the breakdown of $215 are the key to confirmation. The RSI > 62 on the day increases the chance of acceleration, the RSI < 45 with a loss of $ 200 is a signal to deepen the correction.
Scenarios
- Positive. A daily consolidation above $215 on increased volume opens the way to $ 225, followed by a “push” to $ 240-250. If the dynamics of the network increases (growth of active addresses, transactions, TVL), a surge of $ 260-280 is possible due to inertia. Stop-invalidation of the bullish momentum is a return under $205-200.
- Neutral. Sideways movement of $196-215 with a “saw” around $205-210: the market is digesting the recent movement, the moving averages are converging, the RSI is balancing at 50-55. In this mode, it is reasonable to trade from the boundaries of the range with short stops.
- Negative. The loss of $ 195-196 and a series of closures under the 200-day environment increase the likelihood of a descent to $ 180-176. The pressure will increase: risk-offs in the alt market, deterioration of network performance or outflow of liquidity from DeFi.
The result. The key to continuing the trend is a steady breakdown of $212-215 with volume confirmation. So far, the structure is bullish, but the market needs a “spark” — the convergence of technology and network activity.
Cryptocurrencies are a high—risk asset. All levels and scenarios are provided for analytics and training purposes and are not a financial recommendation. Manage the risk and check the plan against your own horizon and assumptions.
